Para Jumble practice question for SSC. Review the correct answer and explanation, then continue with related practice below.
Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. The apparent precision of the final estimate can therefore conceal substantial uncertainty in the assumptions used to produce it. B. Complex forecasts often combine several estimates, each of which contains its own uncertainty. C. If those uncertainties are correlated rather than independent, their combined effect can be larger than a simple calculation suggests. D. Forecasting should therefore report uncertainty in the model structure and assumptions, not only in the final numerical output.
Correct Answerसही उत्तर
A. BCAD
Explanationव्याख्या
(English): B introduces multiple uncertain inputs.
C explains how correlated uncertainty can amplify the total effect.
A states the consequence for apparently precise forecasts.
D gives the methodological conclusion.
Overall Meaning: Precise forecasts can still be highly uncertain when their assumptions are uncertain or interconnected.
व्याख्या (Hindi): B कई अनिश्चित अनुमानों पर आधारित forecast का परिचय देता है।
C बताता है कि यदि uncertainties आपस में जुड़ी हों तो उनका संयुक्त प्रभाव अधिक हो सकता है।
A final estimate की apparent precision की सीमा बताता है और D assumptions तथा model uncertainty भी report करने का निष्कर्ष देता है।
समग्र अर्थ:
कोई forecast संख्या में बहुत सटीक दिख सकता है, लेकिन उसकी assumptions अनिश्चित हों तो वास्तविक भरोसा कम हो सकता है।
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