Para Jumble practice question for SSC. Review the correct answer and explanation, then continue with related practice below.
Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. Decision-makers may then become falsely confident because several apparently separate sources actually share the same error. B. Multiple forecasts often increase confidence when they are produced independently. C. If those forecasts rely on the same dataset and similar assumptions, however, their errors may also be highly correlated. D. Forecast comparison should therefore examine methodological independence as well as numerical agreement.
Correct Answerसही उत्तर
A. BCAD
Explanationव्याख्या
(English): B introduces the value of independent forecasts.
C qualifies this by showing that shared data and assumptions can produce correlated errors.
A explains the danger of false confidence.
D gives the analytical rule.
Overall Meaning: Agreement among forecasts is less informative when they rely on the same underlying assumptions.
व्याख्या (Hindi): B independent forecasts की agreement के महत्व को बताता है।
C shared dataset और assumptions से correlated errors की समस्या बताता है।
A false confidence का परिणाम देता है और D methodological independence जाँचने का निष्कर्ष देता है।
समग्र अर्थ:
यदि कई forecasts एक ही data और assumptions पर आधारित हों, तो उनकी agreement उतनी मजबूत evidence नहीं होती।
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