Para Jumble practice question for SSC. Review the correct answer and explanation, then continue with related practice below.
Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. This can produce misleading certainty when the model excludes plausible alternatives from the outset. B. Quantitative forecasts often express uncertainty conditional on a particular model and its assumptions. C. The reported confidence interval may therefore be narrow even though uncertainty about the model itself is substantial. D. Decision-makers should consequently distinguish uncertainty within a model from uncertainty about which model is appropriate.
Correct Answerसही उत्तर
A. BCAD
Explanationव्याख्या
(English): B introduces model-conditional uncertainty.
C explains why the confidence interval may miss model uncertainty.
A states the resulting false certainty.
D gives the conceptual distinction.
Overall Meaning: A precise forecast can still be highly uncertain if the model itself may be wrong.
व्याख्या (Hindi): B forecast uncertainty को model assumptions के अंदर measure करने की बात करता है।
C बताता है कि confidence interval narrow हो सकती है जबकि model choice itself uncertain हो।
A misleading certainty की समस्या बताता है।
D within-model और model uncertainty में अंतर करने का निष्कर्ष देता है।
समग्र अर्थ: Forecast का narrow confidence range होने पर भी काफी uncertainty हो सकती है यदि model selection itself doubtful हो।
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