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UPSC CSAT Tough Reading Comprehension 5 — Uncertainty, Prediction and the Limits of Foresight

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Sample Questions from UPSC CSAT Tough Reading Comprehension 5 — Uncertainty, Prediction and the Limits of Foresight

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Q1. Which one of the following best expresses the central argument of the passage?

A. Forecasting is unreliable in adaptive social systems and should therefore play only a minor role in decision-making.

B. The primary purpose of forecasting should be to produce increasingly precise predictions of future events.

C. Forecasting is valuable not because it can eliminate uncertainty, but because it can help decision-makers prepare for several plausible futures.

D. Scientific forecasts are generally more dependable than economic and social forecasts because human behaviour cannot affect them.

Q2. Why does the author describe many social systems as 'adaptive'?

A. Because social systems gradually become simpler as more information becomes available.

B. Because people may alter their behaviour in response to predictions, policies, incentives and the actions of others.

C. Because social institutions automatically correct forecasting errors over time.

D. Because historical relationships remain stable despite changes in individual behaviour.

Q3. The examples of a predicted bank failure and an epidemic warning primarily demonstrate that:

A. Predictions concerning economic events are generally less reliable than predictions concerning public health.

B. A forecast can influence behaviour in ways that either contribute to or prevent the predicted outcome.

C. Public disclosure of forecasts should be avoided because predictions always influence events.

D. Forecasts become accurate only when individuals believe them.

Q4. Which one of the following assumptions is most essential to the author's argument about evaluating forecasts?

A. A forecast should always be judged according to whether its exact prediction eventually occurs.

B. The occurrence or non-occurrence of a predicted event does not by itself establish the quality of the reasoning that produced the forecast.

C. Most successful forecasts are accurate primarily because of chance.

D. Preventive policies generally make forecasting impossible.

Q5. With reference to the passage, consider the following statements: 1. A prediction that fails to materialize must have been based on faulty reasoning. 2. A correct prediction does not necessarily prove that the forecasting method was reliable. 3. Greater numerical precision in a forecast necessarily indicates greater certainty. 4. Forecasting can be useful even when the future cannot be predicted with certainty. Which of the statements given above are consistent with the passage?

A. 1 and 3 only

B. 2 and 4 only

C. 1, 2 and 4 only

D. 2, 3 and 4 only

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