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861. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. When observers see only successful survivors, they may mistake survival for proof that the original strategy was sound. B. Several firms adopt highly risky expansion strategies during an economic boom. C. Most eventually fail, while a small number become extremely successful. D. Learning only from the winners can therefore encourage excessive risk-taking.

862. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. These delayed effects can reverse the conclusion suggested by the first few months of data. B. Some policies change incentives immediately but alter behaviour only gradually. C. Individuals may need time to learn about the new rule, adjust contracts or replace existing equipment. D. Evaluations conducted too early may therefore capture transition rather than the long-term effect.

863. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. The intervention then appears associated with worse outcomes even though it may actually be helping. B. Doctors are more likely to give an intensive treatment to patients who are already the most seriously ill. C. A simple comparison finds that treated patients have higher mortality than untreated patients. D. Severity at the start must therefore be accounted for before judging treatment effectiveness.

864. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. Once a visible target is announced, however, institutions may reorganise activity specifically around that target. B. A government initially uses an indicator merely to observe performance. C. The indicator can therefore stop behaving like a neutral measure after it becomes a formal objective. D. What was once a useful description may then begin influencing the behaviour it measures.

865. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. A highly accurate average forecast may therefore still be unsuitable for planning if extreme outcomes matter greatly. B. Some forecasting methods are judged mainly by their average prediction error. C. A method can perform well on ordinary days while repeatedly missing rare but severe events. D. Evaluation should consequently consider tail risk as well as average accuracy.

866. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. The apparent improvement may therefore be partly statistical rather than behavioural. B. A school removes its lowest-performing students from an examination cohort before final results are calculated. C. The average score of the remaining students rises substantially. D. Evaluators should check whether the population being measured remained comparable over time.

867. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. The resulting price rise may then be blamed entirely on shortage even though expectations helped intensify it. B. Consumers hear reports that a product may soon become scarce. C. Many of them buy more than usual in anticipation of future difficulty. D. Their additional purchases themselves reduce current availability.

868. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. This can make the organisation appear increasingly successful even if its underlying effectiveness is unchanged. B. A charity begins measuring success only among beneficiaries who complete a full year of participation. C. People receiving the least benefit are more likely to leave before completing the year. D. Over time, the remaining group becomes increasingly concentrated with successful cases.

869. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. When the central bank changes the benchmark rate, borrowing costs may not adjust equally for all borrowers. B. Monetary policy is often described as if a single interest-rate change affects the entire economy uniformly. C. Banks may treat large firms, small firms and households differently because their risks and financing options differ. D. Transmission should therefore be studied across sectors rather than inferred from one headline interest rate.

870. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. However, those same users may be the ones with the strongest reason to remain active on the platform. B. A social platform finds that its most active users report the highest satisfaction. C. It would be tempting to conclude that greater use causes greater satisfaction. D. The observed relationship may instead partly arise because dissatisfied users reduce their activity or leave.

871. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. The usefulness of the old model may then decline even though it once described behaviour accurately. B. People often adjust when rules or incentives become predictable. C. A model built from past behaviour assumes that those responses will remain broadly unchanged. D. If the policy environment changes, however, people may begin making different choices.

872. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. For that reason, a later fall in the indicator need not imply that the underlying condition improved. B. Authorities begin inspecting only those firms considered most likely to violate regulations. C. The first round therefore discovers an unusually high number of violations. D. Once the highest-risk firms have been examined, subsequent inspections naturally produce fewer violations.

873. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. A policy that appears neutral at the individual level can therefore have unequal effects across groups. B. One rule requires every applicant to submit documents through the same online portal. C. Applicants with reliable internet, digital devices and technical assistance can comply easily. D. Those without such resources face much higher practical costs.

874. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. Once the easier cases have already been solved, additional spending may increasingly be directed toward harder cases. B. A programme's cost per successful outcome can rise even if its administration becomes more efficient. C. This makes later expansion look less productive than the early phase. D. Evaluators should therefore distinguish diminishing opportunities from declining managerial quality.

875. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. This can cause a system to appear stable precisely because the pressures building inside it are not yet visible. B. Small disturbances are sometimes absorbed by reserves, informal adjustments or temporary workarounds. C. Observers may therefore underestimate vulnerability when they judge resilience only by the absence of recent failures. D. If those buffers gradually weaken, a later shock can produce a disproportionately large breakdown.

876. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. The apparent success of the strategy may therefore depend on conditions that existed only in the past. B. An investment strategy is designed after examining which rules would have performed best on historical data. C. Repeatedly testing alternatives makes it easier to discover a rule that fits past noise unusually well. D. Reliable evaluation requires testing the selected strategy on genuinely new data.

877. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. The resulting estimate can therefore be strongly affected by how those missing observations are handled. B. A long-term study gradually loses contact with some participants. C. Participants who leave may differ systematically from those who remain. D. Researchers should consequently report attrition and test whether conclusions depend on assumptions about missing data.

878. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. Such a result may arise even when the new policy has no causal effect. B. Authorities introduce an intervention immediately after a year with exceptionally poor results. C. Because extreme outcomes are often followed by more normal ones, performance improves the following year. D. Evaluators should therefore consider regression toward the mean before crediting the entire improvement to the intervention.

879. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. Yet focusing exclusively on the most probable outcome can leave decision-makers unprepared for rare but severe losses. B. Forecasts usually assign different probabilities to several possible outcomes. C. Robust planning therefore considers both likelihood and consequence. D. A low-probability event may deserve attention when its potential damage is extremely large.

880. Arrange the following sentences in the correct order. A. The original relationship may then weaken even though the underlying mechanism has not disappeared. B. Once a useful forecasting signal becomes widely known, people may change their behaviour in response to it. C. Traders, for example, may act immediately on a pattern that previously predicted future price movements. D. Predictive relationships involving human behaviour can therefore change after they become publicly exploited.

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